September brought a rare moment of calm for the people living along Mexico’s eastern coast, marking the first hurricane-free month in the Atlantic in over 30 years. This offers a sense of relief for many whose lives often pivot around the unpredictability of tropical storms. In stark contrast, the Pacific side of the country witnessed a tumultuous season, with 20 named storms and nine hurricanes, stark reminders of nature’s power.
Among these storms were three Hurricanes reaching the formidable Category 5. Hurricane Genevieve, off the Pacific coast in July, and Hurricane Lowell, which diverted towards Hawaii, were significant, while Hurricane Polo brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to the Baja Peninsula and Sonora coast in September.
As of early October, no Atlantic storms had attained hurricane strength, yet the presence of Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico has raised concerns. Forecasts indicate that Isaias may escalate to hurricane status soon, potentially disrupting the calm in the Atlantic.
The climate phenomenon known as “super” El Niño has played a pivotal role in this year’s unusual weather patterns. According to specialists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), warmer waters in the central equatorial Pacific are transported towards Mexico, energizing the formation of cyclones. This situation contrasts with conditions in the Atlantic, where El Niño typically leads to increased wind shear, which hinders storm development.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) had predicted an unusually high number of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic, contrary to typical patterns. This September notably marked a historic lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic, a pattern not seen since 1994.
Meanwhile, the emergence of Tropical Storm Isaias could signal a shift. Forming north of Veracruz, this storm is projected to strengthen, possibly becoming the season’s first hurricane. Winds are expected to reach up to 75 mph, with the potential for more significant intensification by Friday.
Residents of the Bay of Campeche and Yucatán Peninsula should prepare for heavy rainfall, which could reach up to 10 centimeters (2 to 4 inches). As hurricane seasons extend until November 30, communities remain vigilant, hoping for safety as storms continue to develop in both oceans.